Precarity by Design: Governance Gaps, Refugee Resilience, and Policy Lessons from Lebanon

July 16, 2025

Naffah Carlos, Executive Director, Train/Train

Introduction

After more than a decade of conflict, even following the fall of Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, Syria continues to be one of the most significant refugee crises in the world. Since 2011, over 14 million Syrians have been forced to flee their homes for safety (UNHCR, 2025). More than 7.4 million Syrians remain displaced within their own country, with 70 percent of the population needing humanitarian assistance and 90 percent living below the poverty line. More than six million Syrian refugees reside in countries neighboring Syria, including Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq (SDC, 2025). In the absence of a formal asylum framework, Lebanon’s fragmented governance and legal ambiguity have left most Syrian refugees in a state of legal and economic precarity. These conditions have left most refugees in legal limbo, relying on informal labor and humanitarian aid to survive, and increasingly exposed to systemic vulnerability (UNHCR, 2025). This study examines the intersection of inclusive governance, resilience, and adaptability in shaping the experiences and aspirations of Syrian refugees in Lebanon, particularly in anticipation of a post-Assad political transition. The prospect of regime change in Syria serves as a critical reference point for ongoing political, economic, and social reforms, which in turn influence host countries’ policy frameworks toward refugee populations. While existing literature often emphasizes refugee self-reliance or the scale of humanitarian interventions, there remains a notable gap in understanding how public policy, manifested through legal structures, economic integration, and political participation, affects the resilience of both refugees and host communities. Lebanon offers a compelling case for such analysis. Its fragile political, economic, and security landscape, compounded by sectarian divisions, presents unique challenges to governance and refugee integration. This research contends that while adaptability is essential, it cannot substitute for institutional support and legal protections. Refugee resilience, though vital for navigating precarious conditions, is insufficient in the absence of systemic safeguards. This argument forms the foundation for investigating how structural and political factors shape refugee resilience in Lebanon. The main questions informing this research are:

What are the indicators of refugee resilience among Syrians despite restrictive policies in Lebanon?

What are the social and economic impacts of inclusive versus exclusionary policies on refugees and host communities?

How do local, national, and international governance measures affect refugee integration and resilience building?

This paper outlines the theoretical framework that combines social and environmental resilience theory, political opportunity theory, and the human security framework. It then describes the qualitative research methodology, including case study selection and data collection methods. The subsequent sections analyze the legal framework, economic integration, and governance constraints affecting Syrian refugees in Lebanon. The paper concludes with recommendations for policy and governance measures for Syrian refugees in a post-Assad regime Lebanon.

2. Theoretical Framework

The current study uses a combined theoretical framework to analyze how legal, political, and economic systems affect the resilience of Syrian refugees within a fragile governance environment. It integrates three approaches, social and environmental resilience theory, political opportunity theory, and the human security framework, to provide a comprehensive analysis of how Syrian refugees manage legal, political, social, and economic exclusion in Lebanon. Although each framework offers a different perspective, they complement each other in examining the fragility of asylum policies and changes in a host country facing structural crises.

2.1 Social and Environmental Resilience Theory

Social and environmental resilience is the ability to adapt or transform in the face of change in social and environmental systems. Fundamentally, this theory is premised on the capacity of individuals and communities to reconstruct, reorganize, and endure systemic stresses in performing crucial functions, particularly when confronted with turbulent change (Folke, 2016). In refugee contexts, resilience goes beyond psychological endurance, including everyday coping strategies in response to legal uncertainty, economic exclusion, and social marginalization. Syrian refugees in Lebanon have developed diverse coping mechanisms, including integration into the informal economy, reliance on family networks, and participation in housing and humanitarian aid. However, resilience in Lebanon is not a natural result. Instead, it is a forced response to restrictive policies rather than an outcome of an enabling environment, which makes it fragile and unsustainable (Daif, 2021).

2.2 Political Opportunity Theory

Political Opportunity Theory examines how political structural aspects such as institutional coping capacity, elite attitudes, and state capabilities affect the ability of marginalized groups to mobilize and claim rights (Tarrow, 1994). In Lebanon, the political system is characterized by sectarian power-sharing and a deep-rooted rejection of refugee integration to the extent that it is singled out in a paragraph in the preamble of the National Accord and paragraph of the preamble of the Lebanese Constitution, which affirms that “there is no partition, division, or nationalization”, firmly preventing Syrian refugees from political participation in decision-making. Unlike Turkey and Jordan, where some degree of formal refugee representation and access to employment has been institutionalized, Lebanon has deliberately avoided providing political avenues for refugee participation. Syrian refugees are legally classified as “displaced persons” rather than refugees under international law, excluding them from participating in political dialogues or advocating for legal protection (Janmyr, M., 2016). Political opportunity theory reveals that in the absence of possibilities for participatory action and political inclusion, refugee and host community resilience strategies become reactive rather than transformative, and refugee agency remains constrained within rigid regimes and explicitly non-national policies.

2.3 Human Security Framework

The Human Security Framework, as presented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) under the Human Development Report, redefines security by prioritizing the individual’s well-being over state-centric notions of national security (UNDP, 1994). It includes economic stability, legal recognition, public health, and personal safety, key dimensions for refugees or displaced persons. In the Lebanese context, this framework reveals how legal exclusion, reliance on informal labor, and systemic poverty threaten the human security of refugees on multiple levels. The policies adopted to manage Syrian refugees in Lebanon are fundamentally at odds with the principles of human security. Syrian refugees face detention, forced deportation, and barriers to education, healthcare, and employment due to their undocumented or quasi-legal status (Janmyr M.&., 2018). Economic and legal exclusion is exacerbated by political instability and donor fatigue, which together lead to human insecurity for refugees and increase their dependence on unsustainable humanitarian aid mechanisms.

2.4 Interplay of Theoretical Frameworks in the Lebanese Context

Together, these three frameworks offer a coherent, multi-dimensional analysis of the conditions faced by Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Resilience theory reveals refugees’ adaptive behaviors under exclusionary conditions; political opportunity theory accounts for the constraints limiting their participation; and the human security framework addresses how these exclusions threaten safety and welfare.

These theoretical tools are applied to key empirical themes: legal exclusion, economic marginalization, and governance disparities, to clarify how Lebanon’s fragmented governance perpetuates vulnerability. Table 1 illustrates how each framework intersects with these key issues.

Table 1: Intersection of Theoretical Frameworks and Empirical Themes in the Lebanese Context

Despite years of crisis, Lebanon has failed to enact inclusive reforms. Legal ambiguity, economic exclusion, and blocked participation leave refugee adaptation fragile, especially amid renewed displacement following Assad’s fall. The fragmented response reflected in inconsistent municipal strategies and limited UNHCR authority erodes resilience and reinforces inequalities (Janmyr M., 2016). This triadic framework strengthens the paper’s argument: resilience becomes viable only within an inclusive, rights-based governance structure, a necessity as Lebanon navigates Syria’s transition.

3. Methodology

This study adopts a qualitative research methodology to explore mechanisms for building community resilience among Syrian refugees in Lebanon within a restrictive and exclusionary governance environment. Qualitative methods are essential to capture the complex socio-political contexts shaping refugee responses, as recommended by Creswell in using a qualitative approach to understand complex social phenomena in fragile and conflictual environments (Creswell, 2016).

The analysis is based on a combination of three theoretical lenses used to understand the ability of individuals to “live well” despite constraining circumstances. These perspectives clarify how local governance and legal barriers influence refugee adaptation. A multiple case study design enables analysis of how differing regional and political contexts shape refugee experiences. It highlights how variables like legal status (registered vs. unregistered) and local governance environments impact resilience. This allows for tracing variations in refugee experiences within diverse social and political environments. Data was collected using three primary tools:

Semi-structured interviews: Interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of sixteen participants, distributed as follows: Ten Syrian refugees (five registered with UNHCR and five unregistered), four municipal officials, one representative from international NGOs, and one worker from a local organization. Participants were selected in collaboration with local partners active on the ground to ensure that various perspectives were represented and that interactions between individuals and organizations were covered.

Field Observation: Field observations were carried out over four weeks during March and April 2025, and included field visits to informal camps in Akkar, densely populated neighborhoods in Nabaa, and service centers run by local and international organizations. Observation focused on service access, economic activity, and interactions among refugees, host communities, and local authorities. Two field sites were chosen for their contrasting socio-political settings: Nabaa (urban) and Wadi al-Jamous (rural). This research compares how urban refugees navigate dense, housing-constrained environments versus rural refugees’ dependence on agriculture and limited public services. In addition to fieldwork, policy documents and UNHCR reports were analyzed to contrast political narratives with on-the-ground conditions. Semi-structured interviews offered diverse perspectives, emphasizing both coping mechanisms and governance structures affecting service delivery. Ethical protocols ensured confidentiality and voluntary participation. Observational data validated and expanded insights gathered through interviews. They specifically addressed patterns in service access, economic activity, and institutional interactions. This mixed-method approach offers a holistic picture of refugee resilience shaped by exclusionary legal, economic, and governance systems.

4. Results: Refugee Resilience

4.1 Legal Exclusion Challenges

A major challenge hindering the resilience of Syrian refugees in Lebanon is their lack of official legal recognition. Lebanon has not ratified the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol and considers Syrians to be ‘displaced persons’ rather than refugees. As a result, the vast majority, estimated at over 80% of Syrian refugees in Lebanon, lack valid residency or work permits (VASyR, 2023).

Lebanon’s 2015 residency policy, issued by General Security, imposed complex and often unfeasible conditions, including labor sponsorship, proof of income from abroad, or outdated UNHCR registration. Despite a ruling from the State Shura Council declaring these conditions invalid, General Security continues enforcing them. As a result, many refugees remain unregistered, vulnerable to detention, deportation, and denial of services. Legal exclusion blocks access to healthcare, education, employment, and protection(Cherry, 2024).

Interviews with civil society groups revealed that some municipalities refuse refugee registration, complicating access to services and increasing exposure to arbitrary arrest. Ultimately, legal exclusion undermines both immediate survival and prospects for integration  (NRC, 2021).

4.2 Economic Marginalization: Informal Labor and Gender Vulnerabilities

Lebanon adopts systematic economic exclusion policies and restrictive labor policies towards Syrian refugees due to restrictive labor regulations that prevent them from working in most professional sectors. The Lebanese Ministry of Labor restricts the work of Syrian refugees to agriculture, construction, and sanitation, which are typically low-paid, seasonal, and lack labor protection. Over 90% of Syrian refugees work informally without contracts, legal protections, or labor rights (ILO, 2021). Informal employment exposes refugees to unsafe conditions, including child labor and overcrowded housing (ILO, 2020). Female-headed households face unique barriers, including childcare burdens, discrimination, and safety risks, deepening their vulnerability (UNHCR, 2021). These gender-based challenges also affect all refugee women working under informal and discriminatory systems(UNWOMEN, 2020). Many women are forced into low-paid sectors like cleaning and seasonal agriculture, with little to no legal or social protections(ILO, 2020).  Furthermore, gender norms limit wage negotiations, exposing women to double exploitation by employers and brokers. UN Women and the ILO report that legal, economic, social, and cultural constraints block Syrian women’s access to fair work, pushing them into precarious strategies (UNWOMEN, 2018). Civil society reports confirmed exploitation due to a lack of regulation and repeated that municipalities have no consistent employment policies for refugees. Some refugees have adopted coping strategies like home-based businesses or barter systems, but these are unsustainable and have limited growth potential. At the same time, some refugees have established coping mechanisms, such as home-based businesses or barter networks. In the absence of formal employment and adequate financial security, economic resilience remains fragile and contingent on volatile aid. Intersecting vulnerabilities affect specific groups such as LGBTQ individuals, disabled persons, and the stateless (CoAR, 2021). Reports from HRW and UNHCR highlight additional barriers these populations face in accessing protection and services(HRW, 2023).  Their inclusion in policy design is essential to move beyond treating refugees as a monolithic group.

4.3 Irregular Local Governance

Municipalities are facing the challenges independently without a clear national strategy for the Syrian refugee crisis. Consequently, their approaches differ distinctly, shaped by their political positioning, local demographic influences, and capacity to secure funding from international donors (Kikano, Fauveaud, and Lizarral, 2021). A municipal official said, “There are municipalities that are strict and municipalities that are lenient. There are no unified guidelines, which creates a sense of injustice between refugees and the Lebanese regions themselves.” One official pointed out that “sometimes the response is more based on political or sectarian affiliation than actual need”. In many districts, municipalities imposed forced decisions, including night-time curfews, evictions, and prohibiting Syrian refugees without official documents from working, generally justified by security concerns or community tensions (Facon, 2023). This confirms the extent of the local municipal policy gap. Activists from civil society described how “aid delivery is occasionally susceptible to local pressures, particularly from politically influential actors in the municipality.” They also stated that “some areas are open to us and ask for cooperation, while others close the door to us under the pretext of security or politics.” However, some other municipalities have implemented more comprehensive programs, together with NGOs or independently, in providing vocational education, medical care, and winter working programs for the refugees and host communities. For example, in border areas such as Arsal and Wadi Khaled, municipalities facilitated and promoted the participation of the refugees in agriculture and trade, and, conscious of their contribution, harvested their input for the community economy. These regional inequalities generate geographical inequalities in the refugee condition. Refugees’ ability to obtain education, medical care, or legal assistance may depend more on where they are than on their formal rights. This state fragmentation further weakens resilience measures because refugees cannot rely on standardized or rights-based services across the country. These disparities clearly demonstrate that local political structures create different opportunities or constraints for refugees, consistent with the assumptions of political opportunity theory. The lack of a national framework for refugee representation or participation in decision-making leads to a dependency on whether local contexts are open or closed. Municipalities with relative autonomy or strong partnerships with civil society organizations tend to facilitate greater practical integration. Conversely, municipalities influenced by negative rhetoric or hostile political alliances tend to foster exclusionary environments that increase vulnerability. These dynamics show that political opportunities are not only static or national but also manifest locally and are a crucial factor in refugees’ ability to claim rights or negotiate protection.

4.4 the Impact of the 2019 Lebanese Financial Crisis on Refugees’ Coping Strategies

The Lebanese financial meltdown in 2019 resulted in a decline in the living conditions of both Lebanese citizens and Syrian refugees (ILO, 2021). By the end of 2024, the cumulative decline in Lebanon’s GDP since 2019 approached 40 percent, deepening Lebanon’s multifaceted crisis (World Bank, 2025). Refugees have also suffered widespread job losses in the informal sectors, particularly in construction and agriculture. Due to the deepening economic crisis and the acceptance of Lebanese workers at Syrian workers’ wages, Lebanese employers have begun prioritizing Lebanese workers. One municipality noted that “after 2019, we no longer have enough funding to help the Lebanese or the Syrians. We ask organizations to intervene because our budget is insufficient to cover waste.” Another municipal official emphasized that “the financial crisis has affected all people, but the refugee has a support network, unlike the Lebanese. We see Lebanese families asking for medicines from the municipality.” Donor fatigue also reduced funding, negatively impacting food aid and cash support. For their part, civil society organizations emphasized that “there is not enough funding for sustainable projects. All the support goes to direct relief, and aid is decreasing over time.” “Since the crisis, we have seen refugees returning to Syria because of the war, and some have left and returned to Syria because there are no jobs like Lebanon,” she said. Many refugees have reported being unable to send their children to school, and moving to homes they share with other families to reduce the cost of rent, which has risen beyond their means. In addition, international humanitarian organizations are helpless in the face of the wave of new refugees who are pouring into Lebanon daily after the fall of the Assad regime. These circumstances have challenged refugees’ endurance. As survival methods turn more reactive and less viable, intervention through collective policy actions and organizational structural reforms is imperative today more than ever before. Although Lebanon faces challenges like fragile governance and political division, some issues faced by Syrian refugees, such as legal and economic marginalization, are also found in other host countries. Thus, comparing Lebanon’s experience with regional and international models can help identify alternative policies and draw lessons to improve the current situation in Lebanon.

5. Comparative Policy Analysis: Lessons from Jordan, Turkey, and Germany

The present study does not merely analyse comparative experiences as inspiring models; it uses them as a critical mirror to reveal Lebanon’s exceptional approach to asylum, which is based on political indecision, legal ambiguity, and institutional inertia. Whilst other host countries, including Jordan, Turkey, and Germany, have taken the initiative to formulate flexible and adaptable regulatory frameworks (El-Abed, O., Najdi, W., & Hoshmand, M, 2024), Lebanon has maintained a policy of denial, treating the refugee crisis as a temporary burden rather than a reality that requires strategic governance. A comparative analysis reveals that the so-called “special circumstances” presented in Lebanese discourse are, in fact, a euphemistic veil for a failure to activate institutions and politicise the refugee issue within fragile local balances. This section, therefore, not only reviews alternative models but also highlights what Lebanon has failed to do, despite more than a decade of crisis. In Jordan, the Jordanian Charter of 2016 was a landmark policy shift towards the structured integration of Syrian refugees. The Charter established an enforcement framework to regulate work permits, particularly in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, linked to a $300 million World Bank job creation programme and donor country support programs (World Bank, 2016). Despite the fall of the Assad regime, Jordan continues to facilitate the employment of Syrian refugees and respect their voluntary return, with more than 55,000 Syrian refugees registered with UNHCR (Almamlakatv, 2025). Turkey contrasts with its temporary protection regime, which grants Syrian refugees legal status, access to healthcare and education, and eligibility for formal employment through permits (D.I.S., 2023). Even though the labor market is still somewhat closed and integration is unbalanced, the TPS has provided a codified legal system that accepts the existence of refugees and respects international norms of protection. On the other hand, the government made a more prudent policy decision to allow Syrians under temporary protection to make “familiarization” visits to Syria before returning (Ferris, 2025).

Germany, on the other hand, represents a model centered on integration within the EU. Syrian asylum seekers benefit from organized resettlement, social protection programmes, language acquisition, and vocational training. In 2019, Syrians constituted the largest segment of refugees enrolled in vocational training programmes in Germany, with more than 8,000 vocational training contracts, demonstrating Germany’s policy of integrating Syrian refugees into the labor market through vocational training. As demonstrated in the comparative section, structured legal status and labor integration seen in Jordan, Turkey, and Germany provide viable alternatives to Lebanon’s ad-hoc approach.

This stark contrast not only reveals differences in capabilities or international support but also exposes the limited political will in Lebanon to build a stable integration model. In contrast to other countries that have adopted partial solutions that can be developed, Lebanon has maintained a policy of ‘no solution’, which has resulted in a deepening reliance on individual and temporary resilience. This approach reproduces exclusion rather than overcoming it, transforming refugees into reluctant actors in the absence of a clear social contract. It is evident that the issue is not solely attributable to the state’s capacities; it is also contingent on its interpretation of the crisis’s essence and its political trajectory.

6. Resilience, governance, and the limits of exclusion

6.1 Resilience as a Comprehensive Approach

This study reveals the limits of refugee resilience in the absence of institutional support. While Syrian refugees in Lebanon have shown remarkable resilience by engaging in the informal labor market, family solidarity, and overcoming legal barriers, these coping mechanisms are inherently unsustainable. Social and environmental resilience theory suggests that resilience depends on individual efforts and enabling environments (Folke, 2016). Research evidence suggests that resilience, when not supported by inclusive and participatory policies, turns into a chronic state of inequality and establishes new crises of social instability. Refugees are forced to accept exploitative working conditions, shared family housing with its social and psychological stresses, and living outside the boundaries of legal protection (Stel, 2020). Thus, in contrast to Jordan or Turkey, where political frameworks at least partially enable organized adaptation, the Lebanese model forces Syrian refugees into precarious and informal modes of living that preclude long-term social and economic stability (Carpi, 2023).

6.2 Municipalities and NGOs as Adaptive Governance Actors

Without a national strategy for refugees, municipalities and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have emerged to serve refugees and manage many of their affairs. Some municipalities, such as Saida and Arsal, have adopted pragmatic approaches, facilitating vocational training courses, engaging in the local labor market, and providing services (Alnap, 2014). These initiatives, typically conceived with NGOs, aim to overcome problems and crises caused by the refugee crisis and create local policy models of integration in the place of non-existent national policies. However, these actions are not common. Other municipalities, citing security issues or claiming budget constraints, have implemented night-time curfews, camp eviction notices, and bans on working without a valid work permit. This duplication of governance reinforces geographic, economic, and sectarian disparities in the experiences of refugees and increases instability (Charif, 2017). From a political opportunity theory perspective, the lack of legal or organizational opportunities for refugee representation at the municipal level limits their ability to influence and participate in decisions that affect their lives (Jacobi, 2021). While NGOs fill critical service gaps - providing legal aid, health services, and livelihood support - they are constrained by fluctuating funding and limited political influence.

6.3 The Fragility of Aid-dependent Resilience

Since the onset of the refugee crisis, regional and international humanitarian agencies have been instrumental in sustaining the refugees in Lebanon. Agencies such as the UNHCR and the World Food Programme (WFP) have offered basic needs such as food, shelter, and finance, which counter the effects of the official withdrawal from the role of support. Nonetheless, the foreign aid-reliant infrastructure is under mounting stress. As Lebanon’s economic crisis worsens in 2019 and donor fatigue sets in, support programs are experiencing reduced funding, a decline in the volume of food aid, and disruptions in service delivery mechanisms, threatening to undermine the ability to respond to growing needs (EDDÉ, 2025).

The Human Security Framework emphasizes legal, economic, and social structural protection as the foundations of individual and social stability (Adger W. N., 2024). Without legislative reforms or comprehensive development policies, reliance on short-term aid turns humanitarian efforts into mere stopgap measures rather than building sustainable solutions.  With a decline in aid, refugees are confronted with rising poverty, rising exposure to exploitation, and rising dependence on irregular survival mechanisms, leaving them more exposed to rising humanitarian and legal vulnerability and worsening their crisis in the absence of a national vision plan for tackling the underlying causes of the crisis.

6.4 Political Concerns About Localization and Demographic Tensions

Lebanon’s reservations about formalizing the management of the refugee file are based on chronic political fears that their status will turn into permanent resettlement. Lebanese political elites, echoing their historical experience with Palestinian refugees, fear that granting Syrians legal recognition could threaten fragile demographic balances and overburden an already overstretched service infrastructure. These fears are exacerbated by the overlapping regional interests, especially with the recurrence of security incidents inside Syria after the fall of the regime, which take on a sectarian character in a context that complicates the humanitarian scene and turns the refugee issue into a pressure card in regional geopolitical conflicts. On the other hand, clinging to the status quo and refusing to adopt strategic solutions, such as building temporary protection programs or expanding flexible work facilities, has created a chronic crisis. Refugees remain trapped between the impossibility of local integration and the impossibility of safe return. At the same time, Lebanon has been exhausted by its successive crises, from the capabilities required to address the crisis systematically to meet human rights standards. This stalemate has turned into a vicious cycle fueled by sectarian fears and regional developments that make refugees a negotiating tool, turning their issue into a file suspended between the stakes of domestic politics and the balances of regional conflict. Thus, the humanitarian response has been left hostage to temporary palliatives. At the same time, opportunities to build policies capable of balancing human rights with the stability of the host country have been lost, in a scene that reflects the failure of everyone to move from the circle of tinkering to the space of radical solutions.

6.5 Toward a Recalibration of Policies

The study’s findings affirm that community resilience is not an effective alternative to systematic integration policy. In line with shifting from attention towards short-term resilience to building sustainable stability, Lebanon must overcome political and institutional resistance towards adopting radical reforms in refugee management policies. Borrowing from the successful experience of nations such as Jordan, Turkey, and Germany, the study recommends re-designing the application framework by:

1. Adopting legal frameworks for temporary protection: In line with international standards, establish fundamental rights for refugees to ensure clear legal protection in the transitional period. 
2. Expanding the regularization of work: Granting flexible work permits in specific economic sectors (such as construction, agriculture, and some services) to integrate refugees into the formal market and reduce reliance on the informal economy. 
3. Promoting decentralized governance by building municipalities’ capacity to design comprehensive policies that consider the interaction between local needs and refugee realities rather than a fragmented, centralized approach. 
4. Standardizing data collection mechanisms: Strengthening cooperation between the government and UNHCR to create standardized records contributing to service planning and minimizing duplication. 

The paper cautions that if the crisis is managed with ad-hoc measures instead of implementing structural changes in governance and policies, it will worsen the exclusion of regular refugees and endanger social and economic stability by intensifying the pressures from the escalating refugee crisis. Without an institutional environment that best reconciles national interests with human rights, crises will persist; otherwise, the existing policy of denial and evasions for “crisis management” can be employed to fan internal tensions. For this reason, the study holds that learning from comparative cases is not a technical option but a strategic necessity in order to redefine the refugees’ discourse from a burden to an opportunity that enhances social cohesion and co-development.

This comparative analysis demonstrates that such discrepancies in Lebanese policies are not inevitable; instead, they can be addressed through the implementation of well-considered and context-appropriate options, as evidenced by various experiences in Jordan, Turkey, and Germany. The study concludes with the presentation of practical recommendations for transforming the Lebanese response from one of exclusion and improvisation to a comprehensive and sustainable model.

7. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

The Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon poses a complex and persistent challenge for governance, worsened by economic collapse, political instability, and the refusal to accept refugees officially. Research indicates that, despite significant attention, resilience among Syrian refugees is diminished by discriminatory policies that hinder their rights and economic involvement. Drawing on social and environmental resilience theory, political opportunity theory, and human security paradigm, analysis demonstrates that resilience-building processes are not circumscribed by limitations in terms of lack of resilience but constrained by structural bottlenecks ingrained within Lebanon’s refugee governance model.

The most compelling findings underscore the degree to which legal uncertainty as a result of Lebanon’s reluctance to sign the 1951 Refugee Convention or enact a national refugee law has rendered a majority of Syrian refugees legally inadmissible to residence, hence subjecting them to arrest, deportation, and exclusion. Marginalization on economic grounds is compounded by the stringent labor law, which reduces over 90 percent of the refugees to only casual work, lacking protections, responsibilities, and rights. Additionally, differences among municipalities generate spatial differences in refugee access to services because some local municipalities promote inclusive practices while others impose discriminatory curfews and work bans. Refugees have continued to cope through informal work, help from relatives, and aid from NGOs, but these cannot be self-sustaining without institutional support. Lebanon’s current approach to addressing the problem, which is unclear, decentralized, and dependent on foreign aid, is not a perfect long-term strategy.

The present study affirms that the concept of ‘resilience’ should not replace structural reform, as shown by both theoretical and empirical evidence. The lack of legal protection and institutional integration has been proven to negatively impact the marginalization of refugees. Additionally, it has been shown to weaken the state’s ability to respond sustainably. Therefore, resilience should be seen as an outcome of comprehensive governance, not a substitute for it. It is advised that the following policy measures be considered based on these findings:

A. Establish a temporary protection system

Lebanon needs to adopt a temporary protection system, similar to those applied in Turkey and parts of the European Union, that gives refugees legal status without implying permanent settlement. Such a framework would allow access to fundamental rights such as residency, healthcare, and education, while addressing national concerns about demographic shifts. It would also allow Lebanon to better coordinate with international partners and plan for future return scenarios under more stable conditions in Syria.

B. Expand access to legal employment and formalize informal employment

Current restrictive labor policies are economically counterproductive and socially destabilizing. Lebanon should expand the sectors open to refugee labor, particularly in construction, specific services, and light industry, where a labor shortage exists. A formalized work permit system would reduce exploitation, increase tax revenues, and empower refugees to become self-reliant. Special emphasis should be placed on supporting refugee women through targeted programs that address gender-specific barriers to entering the labor market.

C. Enable UNHCR to resume complete registration of refugees

The Lebanese government’s request to UNHCR in 2015 to block the registration of newly arriving refugees created a significant protection gap and hindered accurate data collection. Restoring UNHCR’s full mandate to register and document all Syrian refugees would strengthen legal accountability, improve aid targeting, and allow for coordinated humanitarian response planning. It would also provide a basis for future solutions through integration, return, or third-country resettlement.

D. Strengthening municipal capacities through inclusive local governance

As municipalities lead in providing services to refugees, the Lebanese government must prioritize establishing inclusive local governance. This involves institution-building at the municipal level, increasing revenue through local services, and enhancing collaboration with NGOs and donors. Joint actions that bring together refugee and host communities through cooperative vocational training programs and jointly accessed infrastructure are promising for mitigating tension and building resilience for both refugee and host communities.

Given the pivotal role that municipalities play in the management of challenges associated with asylum, it is recommended that this role be activated through concrete measures, including:

The concept of fiscal decentralisation can be defined as follows: it denotes the partial transfer of fiscal powers from the central government to municipalities. This is achieved while ensuring regular access to shares of public budgets and international aid allocated to refugees.

The establishment of targeted institutional capacity building is imperative. The design of technical and administrative training programs for municipal councils and working groups is a key focus of this project. The program centers on the management of refugee projects, assessing needs, and engaging the local community.

The enhancement of coordination between municipalities is of paramount importance. Establishing participatory mechanisms at the municipal union level is imperative for facilitating the exchange of experiences and coordinating collective responses to cross-regional issues, including, but not limited to, education, health, and housing.

The expansion of multilateral partnerships is of particular significance. It is vital to assist municipalities in order to facilitate the process of direct cooperation agreements with international organisations and donors. The objective is to ensure the implementation of locally funded projects is transparent and effective.

The implementation of these measures will effect a transformation in municipal governance, moving from a reactive response to a sustainable management model that is data-driven and based on a balanced consideration of the needs of refugees and host communities.

E. Implications for other fragile host countries.

The Lebanese experience has core lessons for other weak states that host significant refugees. In the event of weak national government institutions and/or political opposition to refugee integration, temporary protection, labor market integration, and local governance are feasible ways to boost refugee resilience and stability within host communities. International donors and humanitarian actors need to shift focus towards long-term structural assistance instead of short-term emergency relief and tie investment to enhanced policy reform.

Briefly, Lebanon is at a turning point. If the current policy is maintained, it will likely lead to further social and economic unrest. Lebanon can transition from managing crises to managing refugees sustainably by adopting organized, inclusive, and rights-based policies. It can serve as a model for other host nations whose protracted displacement persists in politically unstable and economically marginalized settings.